No
end in sight to high prices
By Jennifer Mitchell
Westshore
Published July 12, 2006
Westlake’s
Joe Schaefer stood outside the Circle K Marathon gas station June
29 filling up his Mercury minivan. Though he had a quarter-full
tank when he started, at $2.81 a gallon, the married father of three
laid out $50 before the tank was full.
The Schaefers have a slightly smaller car, a Toyota
Rav4, that Joe drives an average of 200 miles weekly to and from
work. His wife mainly uses the larger minivan to commute to her
job in Lakewood.
According to AAA, Ohio’s average gas price is about
72 cents higher than a year ago, and drivers such as Schaefer have
no other choice than to pay the increase, now inching over $3 a
gallon at some stations.
“As active as our kids are, there’s not a whole lot
you can do,” Schaefer said. “I’d like to say we cut back, but it’s
not an option.”
However, his son will attend Holy Name High School
in Parma Heights this fall, creating one more daily trip. Schaefer
and other neighbors with children at the same school plan to take
turns carpooling the students back and forth in an effort to share
the cost.
National City Corp. Economist Ryan Reed doesn’t have
any pat solutions to rising gas costs either, but he does have some
explanations. Reed spoke to the Rocky River Chamber of Commerce
June 22 on the issue.
Many have speculated that gas prices are increasing
because the world is running out of petroleum. Reed said that may
be part of the problem, but not all of it.
“Yes, we are running out of oil in that it’s a finite
resource and it’s not renewable,” Reed said.
But several other factors are a part of the gasoline
price hikes over the past few years, he explained.
Though the United States holds just 4.5 percent of
the world’s population, its citizens are responsible for 25 percent
of the world’s oil use. That breaks down to about 21 million barrels
a day.
China, the world’s second largest user, consumes 6.5
million barrels a day.
In addition to being the second largest user in the
world, China is joining Brazil, India and Russia in their growing
petroleum demands — consumption in those countries has steadily
increased over the past two years.
The trend in the oil industry has always been that
when consumption rises above production, petroleum prices go up
and, in the opposite situation, prices dip.
Reed said producers weren’t very well equipped to
deal with the initial increase in demand from so many countries,
but things have since turned around.
However, the once-standard pricing trend has completely
changed.
“In 2004, as production rises above consumption, prices
continue to escalate,” Reed said.
His explanation is that “production companies are
now paying more attention to world events than supply and demand.”
Iraq, Iran and Saudia Arabia are three of the world’s
largest oil producers.
There’s a war in Iraq and Iran says it wants to enrich
uranium in order to begin an atomic power program, while Western
countries worry that it’s trying to build a nuclear weapon.
Last year, Hurricane Katrina hit the U.S. Gulf Coast.
Events such as these are having a real impact on gas prices, Reed
said.
While individuals such as Schaefer are doing what
they can to keep up with the costs of gasoline at home, Reed is
concerned with the bigger picture.
As an economist, Reed has studied how high energy
prices could cause an economic disruption.
Higher energy costs and inflation are correlated,
Reed said.
In May, the Associated Press reported a 0.4 percent
increase in overall inflation. A 2.4 percent jump in energy costs
preceeded the increase.
Inflation is generally described as an increase in
the prices of consumer goods, or a decline in the value of money.
Essentially, $1 doesn’t go as far as it used to.
The Federal Reserve, now headed up by Ben Bernanke,
tries to prevent that from happening by raising interest rates.
The idea is that higher rates make money more expensive
to borrow. If less borrowing takes place, less money will be pumped
into the economy. Less of a demand means product prices fall.
While it may limit inflation, higher interest rates
may not be such a boon to those paying off credit cards or other
loans, or banks trying to sell mortgages.
If there’s any good news, Reed said that when you
split the country into five regions — East, West, Midwest, Gulf
and Coastal — the Midwest, including Ohio, consistently has the
second lowest gas prices in the nation, while the Gulf, nearest
to the refineries, is always the lowest.
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